Structural reliability. The theory and practice

• Antsupov A.V., Antsupov A.V. (jr), Antsupov V.P.
  METHODOLOGY OF MACHINE ELEMENTS’ RELIABILITY PREDICTION BY MEANS OF VARIOUS CRITERIA

The paper offers a general methodological approach to reliability estimation of loaded elements of mechanical systems at the design stage in the form of sequence of construction procedure stages of a physical and probabilistic model for generating process of their parametrical failures due to various criteria. The methodology of durability prediction of parts by criterion of kinetic strength is presented and the example of its realization is shown.
Keywords: methodology, prediction, reliability, durability, failure, damageability, γ-percentile life.

• Shishkin V.V., Romanov Yu.V., Stenyushkin D. I.
  DEVELOPMENT OF FRACAS SYSTEMS FOR AIRBORNE EQUIPMENT WITH AUTOMATED IDENTIFICATION OF SOURCES OF SYSTEMATIC FAILURES

The paper presents a methodology for the development of the electronic structure of airborne avionics in the aspect of dependability assurance in the post-production stages of the life cycle, allowing increasing the efficiency of FRACAS systems by computerized analysis of common cause, aimed at identifying the sources of systematic failures and the development of effective corrective actions.
Keywords: electronic structure of a product, systematic failure, source of failures, corrective actions

• Bayneva I.I., Baynev V.V.
  STUDY AND COMPUTER MODELING OF DEPENDABILITY OF TECHNICAL OBJECTS

The paper describes methodologies, models and software for dependability assessment of various technical objects.
Keywords: dependability, method, software, distribution, law, test, feature, variation series, reliability, failure, interpolation

• Onischenko D.D.
  EMPIRICAL TECHNIQUE OF FORECASTING OF LOADED MULTI-ELEMENT SYSTEM COLLAPSE

The paper presents a technique of lifetime reliability estimation for a loaded multi-element system, with the estimation being conducted during the failure of the system. The failure process is considered as quasi-static, and as a model example, the Daniels fiber bundle model is used. The method is based on statistical analysis of the burst sequence, where burst is a simultaneous failure of a number of elements under current total load (package of destructions). As the destructions progresses, we register maximum frequencies for bursts of successive sizes (i.e., single, double etc.). This data is used (via “moving window” averaging technique) for the improvement of the statistical estimate of the time remaining to the avalanche and full system collapse. Computer simulation is used to illustrate the performance of the proposed procedure. A comparison of the approach proposed with ones previously suggested by other researchers is presented, and the benefits of the new technique are shown.
Keywords: quasi-static failure, multi-element system, Daniels fiber bundle, lifetime, avalanche, burst statistics, moving window.

• Akhramovich I.L., Kogut S.A., Tereschenko F.V.
  METHOD OF RISK MANAGEMENT FOR AUTOMATED SYSTEMS UNDER CONDITIONS OF CYBER ATTACKS

The paper presents the methods for defining a manufacturer’s expected costs for warranty maintenance of products. It is shown how to calculate the cost of warranty repairs, with the failure rate of radio-electronic equipment at the design phase taken into account, and put them into the structure of a product’s price, with the duration of warranty borne in mind. Having estimated the expected cost of warranty, a manufacturer can reduce costs by making a reserve fund for warranty service that allows saving money on profit tax.
Keywords: warranty, repair cost, failure, failure rate, radio-electronic equipment, reserve fund, profit tax.

Functional safety. The theory and practice

• Aksenov V.A., Raenok D.L., Zavyalov A.M.
  ASSESSMENT OF NATIONAL REFERENCE VALUES FOR RAILWAY SAFETY. A STATISTICAL TREATMENT

The paper discusses the issues related to development of the system of professional risks management on railway transport. The possibility of modernizing the existing system of labour protection management has been demonstrated in close relationship with the methodology of resource and risk management at all stages of the life cycle of facilities and equipment on the basis of reliability analysis (URRAN).
Keywords: risk management, labour protection management system, URRAN.

• Karmanov A.V., Telyuk A.S.
  DEFINITION OF ACCEPTABLE SAFETY PERFORMANCE FOR MULTI-CHANNEL EMERGENCY PROTECTION SYSTEMS

The paper offers the structure of a cost criterion that may be used as a basis for defining acceptable frequencies and acceptable risk reduction factors for a multi-channel emergency protection system, which maintains a group of hazardous technological objects. The paper also presents an example of defining acceptable safety performance for technological objects involved in the process of preparing products of oil-and-gas wells.
Keywords: safety, risk, emergency protection system, risk reduction factor.

Well-forgotten old

  N.O.Demidovich 
QUALITY CRITERIA FOR PLANS OF FAILURE-FREE PERFORMANCE CONTROL

In order to control such parameters of failure-free performance as TTF of recoverable products and MTBF of non-recoverable products, the standards [1,2] specify two basic types of plans applied usually with the assumption of the exponential distribution of random values, i.e. times between failures and times to failures, – plans with limited duration or with a limited number of failures (type I) and Wald’s truncated serial plans (type II).
Keywords: time between failures, mean time to failure, test plans

Reviews

Chepurko V.A.
Review of the textbook by A.V. Antonov, M.S. Nikulin
STATISTICAL MODELS IN THE RELIABILITY THEORY

Information

• Book by Shubinsky I.B. «Structural Reliability of Information Systems»
• Book by Shubinsky I.B. «Functional Reliability of Information Systems»
  
Training courses in reliability
• Гнеденко - Форум